Sunday, October 08, 2006

Prediction: Failure!


Prachanda gets off on the wrong foot at peacetalks by claiming to be able to "see right through" Girija's ears.


Maoist atrocities increasing, governmental ineptitude and stagnation firmly in control: What better condition could one ask for on the eve of the "talk of all talks" parley between Girija and Prachanda?

Let's see where we are as we stare into the abyss:

Girija's Government: In command of its own status quo, will not give up one ounce of governmental power to the Maoists. Girija has NEVER compromised his place at the head of the corruption table and will not start now. But, one small glimmer of hope: Girija knows he's under more scrutiny this time and is under pressure to actually accomplish something; but he just can't seem to bring himself to do anything useful. The talk of re-uniting with Deuba's NC factions are merely decoys designed to distract from the surging public cries that Girija's government is fractionated and worthless, so we can't look on this as an article of substance. SPA is becoming a marginal entity at best. They can't govern and they don't have guns. Girija needs guns and will be under pressure to find a way to get them.
Girija's failure scenario: The public will become increasingly anxious by Girija's dithering---and then, perhaps, the REAL REVOLUTION will gather some steam; or, the Maoists simply walk away from the table.

Prachanda' Maoists: Have never enjoyed so much power, recognition and world support (thanks UN!) as they do now. They may agree on paper for a disarmament, but they will NEVER give an inch in the countryside. With complete bufoons like Ian Martin telling Nepalis that the Maoists don't have to give up their guns until a political settlement is reached, Prachanda must feel fairly good about his chances. He's not only back-doored his murderous cadres into making a viable challenge for government control, he's had the backing of the world community to boot. Prachanda really has nothing to lose during this time of negotiation. blogdai thinks he'll use every excuse in the book to forward his position. Moriarty's meddling comments and SPA delays are the current finger-pointing exercises he's using as levereage to eventually get out of compromise and disarmament. Prachanda's failure scenario: Eventually, even the meat-headed fools at the UN will not be able to ignore the constant tally of atrocities committed by Prachanda's barely-controlled cadres and be forced to act on the international level.

The Weapons Issue: The only issue. In a land such as Nepal where government is worthless and inept, eventually, control will come down to those who can impose their will most convincingly. That leaves the Maoists and the King. Forget the army fighting for Girija and forget Maoist factions being a part of the army. None of this will ever happen because all involve one or both armed factions ceding at least some of their power; and armed power is increasingly becoming the only viable political currency.

The Final Failure Scenario: We all lose. Girija, once again facing his own political obscurity, will let the Maoists keep their guns. (Remember: Ian Martin said it was OK!) Girija needs to align himself with some group, any group, with the power of armed enforcement or else he's finished. Forget the army. They're still electing their own leaders and functioning autonomously while being fiercely loyal to the King. Nope, Girija has the Maoists at the table and will give away the farm to bring their guns on board and keep himself in power. How will he do it? Through some ineffective language that provides for something like "self-monitoring" of arms and an agreement "not to adversely influence" any rural politics.


blogdai says it here: The Maoists will walk away from these talks with everything they need-- and fully armed.


-=blogdai

30 Comments:

At 1:30 PM, October 08, 2006, Anonymous Bhudai Pundit said...

First off no one is going to accept an armed Maoist in the mainstream government. An inclusion of an armed Maoist in the government is going to mean international isolation and no more foreign aid. I think Mr. Moriarity has made that clear. I don’t think Girija or the other political parties will compromise here. They can’t!
Reading Prachanda’s interview on blog.com.np, I think he is also under a lot of pressure to deliver. He really needs to come out of these negotiations with some political victory, otherwise he will loose face with his cadres. Right now the SPA – particularly Girija has a lot of gain by keeping the status quo. If the peace process moves along slowly he couldn’t careless but the Maoists are getting impatient by what I can tell. Hence when I read that they will willing to be more flexible on the arms issue (nepanews).
Of course the nitty gritty of the arms issue is more complicated but at least, I think things are going in the right direction.
Perhaps the one thing that keeps me optimistic is that I believe Baburam. Prachanda and the top Maoist leadership want a political settlement. These guys are educated enough to know that they cannot come to power through force. The problem for them is that they initially indoctrinated all these young zealous cadres and now it coming to bite them in the ass.

 
At 4:05 PM, October 08, 2006, Blogger blogdai said...

And there is your Pandora's box.

Losing face with your cadres is hard to do when you have little or no control of their activity in the first place. Anything other than a strong statement to lay down arms will be interpereted as : "carry on, business as usual" by those increasingly autonomous maoist field commanders. \

It really is a cross-road for old girija. You are right, he absolutely must be seen as doing something, anything, here at these talks. Yet, the only thing he can get away with will be to let the Maoists keep their guns and TRUST that they will stay peaceful. I don't have to tell you the obvious danger in that position.

Maoist big-wigs want a peaceful settlement? Perhaps, but why? They have never had to compromise one iota of their ideology so far. What makes one think that they will suddenly agree to play nice?

-=blogdai

 
At 6:16 PM, October 08, 2006, Anonymous Bhudai Pundit said...

Baburam and Prachanda, from what I have observed, are intelligent and fairly well educated. So it’s not as if they are complete idiots who are oblivious to what is happening around them. In fact I have seen the Maoists (in their interviews) very aware and concerned about international perception. They have also been very media savvy. Anyway the point is that the Maoist leadership is not under the illusion that they can take over by force and they know that they will need to change some fundamental party policies. I am sure if you ask Baburam or Prachanda they are well aware that until they lay down their arms they will never be recognized as a legitimate political party!
I think they have changed their stance on some fundamental issues as well. For example they now say that if the new CA decides to keep a Monarchy they will accept, they have changed their stance against India – I am sure you read that interview with Baburam where he talked about how India doesn’t have anything to fear should the Maoist come to power.
At the end of the day I doubt Baburam and Prachanda want to go back to the jungles. They have become addicted to all this attention and power. I don’t think they want to spend the rest of their lives hiding in jungles.

However, like I mentioned they have a huge problem with the lower level cadres. If they give into too many concessions the hardliner cadres are going to become disgruntled. It’s really up to Girija right now to put some pressure on the Maoists. I think Girija has more leverage then he realizes.

 
At 11:55 PM, October 08, 2006, Anonymous kaji said...

you duffer, have you looked back at your blogs and counted how many times have you predicted? why don't you start a business of fortune teller in ny--the better palce will be near the rabbles of twin tower--where you presently living i suppose, take a parrot from nepal, if not available there, and start a business rather than working in somebody else's firm.
you pshycopath, can't think of anyting positive.
like your master gyane, you're also daydreaming of the failure of the peace-process. but thats what in nepali called mriga-marichika. got it?

 
At 11:57 PM, October 08, 2006, Anonymous sarki ko choro said...

Bhunai, what you say about Maoists top brass being well educated and media savvy may be right, but remember they are also biggest psychopaths (see definition below), especially the top two: Jitbir (aka Baburam) and Prachanda. Recall big P's recounts of "not eating or sleeping for 3 days" after hearing the murder of more the 30 passengers of a bus in Nawalparasi ... This man surely knows how to shed crocodile tears..

For them other people's life are just some price to pay for their own ascent to power.

(def. Psychopaths are manipulative, charming, glib, deceptive, parasitic, irresponsible, selfish, callous, promiscuous, impulsive, antisocial, and aggressive individuals who have no concern for the welfare of others, experience little remorse or guilt as a result of their injurious and antisocial behavior, do not tolerate delay of gratification, and persevere despite punishment)

Need I say more...Anybody who trusts the Maoists will pay dearly..Beware !

 
At 12:30 AM, October 09, 2006, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Woo Wokay, The terrorists and their supporters are talking again on, HOW TO KILL MORE NEPALIS. And the cadres of these terrorists are spreading their dirty wings like sickening flies.

To all the cadres and their masters: death will come and it will be really heinious for our all.

heehee

By your kind information - the first project of some of our mates is getting successfull. Making tourists boycott Nepal and the terrorist government. tourists arrival 7.8% down and you will see more of this. And you are even not knowing that many big businesses are not paying any taxes to SPAM - except the extortions to Maoists.

Pee in your pants terrorists.

 
At 2:48 AM, October 09, 2006, Anonymous B said...

I agree with blog dai, but like pundit said, we can either be pessimistic or optimistic and i think yes, optimism is the only way forward. We shall hope that at least at this need full hour, the SPA will indeed think about the country before anything else, for the first time.

As far as Mr. B and Mr. P of the maoist party being educated and all that, i think they were educated from the begining of the revolution. If they thought they could take over nepal with force ten years ago, i do not see how that could have changed now. It is not like they just graduated in political science 7 months ago.

As far as political victory for the maoists through the current negotiations can only be election to a CA. What more could they want or what else do you think is possible to give them?

And about girija needing to prove himself to nepalis now, why? Why does girija need to be under pressure to deliver? he has survived for so many years without doing anything, why should he change now, specially when he is 86? We have heard this all before, when NC had been under a lot of pressure to perform and deliver, what did they do? they did nothing and remained in power. It is not going to change especially when, ailing, dieing, corrupt and incompetent girija is all that we can find who is capable of leading this nation at a time of such desparity. Makune, has been in the opposition too long and he can not help feeling like an opposition leader. He is too afraid of changing roles as he likes to stay away and criticize everyone. Ok, if girija fails, replace him with who? Deuba or makune? Not likely my friend. Not at all. And believe me girija is under no pressure that he can not handle easily or by ignoring it.

 
At 3:16 AM, October 09, 2006, Anonymous B said...

Well,

the other solution is that the US take the maoist army to fight in Iraq. Forget the bhutanese (they deserve to back to their own homes not a third country), take the maoists to iraq to fight the insurgents there. That would solve a lot of problems.

 
At 7:27 AM, October 09, 2006, Blogger blogdai said...

When you hear Girija say things like "the world is watching us this time" you know that he's feeling the pressure.

I love the nicey-nicey languange were hearing after the first day of talks. Forget whether blogdai is a pessimist or whatever, blogdai goes on the well-established past patterns of both parties. It always starts nice and hopeful. BUT, the bottom line is:

IT'S ALL ABOUT THE GUNS.

As a matter of fact, this thing may stay sweet and sugary all the way through to the time that the Maoists leave the table with their arms in tact.

blogdai a "duffer?" You leave my golf game out of this.


-=blogdai

 
At 11:58 AM, October 09, 2006, Blogger blogdai said...

Well here we go, lots of press releases today. Most significantly from babbling Babu Ram Bhattari, who just about guaranteed his maoists are going to keep his arms by saying:

"In fact, management of arms is not the major issue facing us. It is the complete restructuring of the state and restructuring of the royal army,"

That's the way, Babu. De-emphasize arms the way Ian Martin has and it won't look so bad when you go back into the jungle fully armed.

blogdai really wanted to be proved wrong on that one. Sad. The past patterns of maoist behaviour were just too revealing.

blogdai

 
At 12:19 AM, October 10, 2006, Anonymous B said...

Blogdai,

I think we will have an even bigger problem if and when the negotiations are successful. What then? Do these SPAM have any policies or strategies pull this nation out of this dire straits? Even if the talk is successful i think it will be the same post 1990 situation where all parties and leaders are fighting over who gets what. And that is because they do not know how to do anything else. I am indeed an optimistic person but i am really struggling here. If if we have peace, where do we go from there? where will the SPAM take us from there? Where are the plans?

 
At 1:46 AM, October 10, 2006, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Summit is nothing but "necessary evil" for the maoist but this seems to be lost in SPA instead are placating Maoist- go hit them with pan. may be that won't work. Hear me out- killer duo have no option but to go for the full take over (militias will kill them if they even start playing like Politicians now) and SPA- the dumbos, are mainly worried about maintaining their status quo-viz a viz rule. Now, there will compromise in loads of issue but not the real issue- ARMS MANAGEMENT. So what is the conclusion- this ain't over yet and nor will it be over unless there is some earth shaking incident or event takes place- what it will be is anybody's guess.

Its not the question of being pessimistic or optimistic of the summit. When the real situation is laid on the table how can one aspire to take a day trip with prozac. Maoist are doing their thing-extortion, kidnappings, killings- not a word from the SPA. How can someone negotiate on equal term when it does not even have a balls to tell them to stop if they want a serious summit. Are we kidding here? Kidding can kill you, babes on the wood.

All will be for nothing unless SPA rolls over and plays dead. And this is what they (SPA) are aiming for in this summit called drowning pool and Maoist are lending them a helping hand.

A jamboree of jokers drawing lines in the sand.

Sansar

 
At 7:29 AM, October 10, 2006, Anonymous Bhudai Pundit said...

I agree that the SPA, particularly Girija, must demand an end to Maoist autrocities!
However, there are some positive developments. Prachanda has agreed to the arms management issue provided that other political issues are also part of the package... this is according to the latest from nepalnews.

I have been saying this over and over but I don't understand why Girija is being such a pussy. He is 86 years ols - he should try to achieve something substantial before he passes away. These Mao bastards (especially the top) don't want to go back to the jungles and hide for the rest of their lives! Girija should demand major concessions but instead the SPA is sitting there with their thumbs up their asses.

 
At 10:21 AM, October 10, 2006, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Look at the peepies of the terrorist government of Nepal. They can't manage their own arms but they talk on others' weapons of mass destructions. Bull shitters. I will kill each and every person of SPAM one by one when I get the power - which I will, sooner than later.


North Korean nuclear test unfortunate: Nepal govt

The government of Nepal has expressed its grave concern over the nuclear test carried out by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on Monday in defiance of global opinion against the same.

A press statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Tuesday that the government viewed the North Korean nuclear test as “unfortunate and uncalled for incident as it will aggravate the delicate situation in the Korean peninsula and the region and will have adverse ramifications for international peace and security”.

“As an ardent advocate of general and complete disarmament of all weapons of mass destruction, Nepal strongly opposes proliferation of weapons and race for armaments irrespective of their locations and motives. Nepal believes in and urge for the peaceful resolution of all international disputes,” the statement read.

North Korea tested its first nuclear bomb on Monday amidst strong reactions from countries like USA, UK, Japan and South Korea.

An emergency meeting of the UN Security Council also strongly condemned the test of nuclear weapon, vowing a “strong and swift response”. nepalnews.com ia Oct 10 06

 
At 11:28 AM, October 10, 2006, Anonymous Bhudai Pundit said...

Anonymous:
It might be helpful if you stopped refering the govt of Nepal as a terrorist government.
I also don't see why you are mad that Nepal has condemed North Korea's nuclear tests.

 
At 2:50 PM, October 10, 2006, Anonymous Anonymous said...

A government is called a terrorist government when:
1) It is made up of terrorists
2) It supports terrorism
3) It comes to power with the help of terrorists
4) It has a past record of conducting terrorist activities
5) It involves in terrorism, kidnappings, extotions, rapes, mass-murders
6) It terrorizes it's own people when at power
7) It supports and encourages terrorism in any form

All the above and much more is true in case of Nepal. Hence, Nepal has nothing but a TERRORIST GOVERNMENT.

 
At 5:02 PM, October 10, 2006, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Now that Blogdai opened his big mouth and made the prediction, the talks will be successful. (I thought that this talk was going to fail.)

I see a clear pattern that Blogdai's prediction are almost always wrong. Just browse this blog and you will see it.

1) Blogdai predicted that SPA will never get people's support and will never topple the Royal Govt. I do not have to tell you what the outcome was.

2) Blogdai claimed that Maoists will not be able to launch any attack after the cease fire. He even went on to claim that Maoists are deserting and going to India by 100's every day. Then we saw that Maoist attacks in Palpa and Thankot.

3) Blogdai claimed that SPA will not agree to King's offer when Gyane conceded and he was wrong. SPA did agree to the offer.

Blogdai, why do you want to make a prediction if you know that you are going to be wrong.

 
At 2:04 AM, October 11, 2006, Anonymous B said...

Anonymous,

I dont think there is anything wrong with blogdai's predictions but it is just that Nepali politics is just crazy and defies any logical or moral indicators

 
At 7:19 AM, October 11, 2006, Anonymous Anonymous said...

B said:

I dont think there is anything wrong with blogdai's predictions

Someone just gave 3 wrongs above! I'd rather have Blogdai doing cutting-edge analyses rather than those insipid predictions of doom and gloom. C'mon Blogdai, show us your good stuff again.

 
At 8:43 AM, October 11, 2006, Blogger blogdai said...

Woo! Three whole perceived wrongs out of a sea of predictions? My average is going up. Yes, let's ignore the patterns of recent history, sweep it under the rug, and get on with the "good stuff," right? Hmm. Let's look at these "wrongs" come to think of it.

1. How can you prove "people's support" without an election? Do the people sound supportive of SPA's current lethargy? Did you just sleep through the Maoist intimidation factor in arriving at your sense of "people's support?" Jeez, did you even bother to read any commentary in the news from your "supporters" claiming outright frustration with SPA?

2. Again, for the thick-headed. EVERy, repeat every time I mention Maoist attacks I clearly say that they have no capacity for LARGE SCALE attacks since Phaphlu. How big was Thankot? Insurgency sized, that's how big. Palpa? sure send in a wave of human sheilds to conceal your numbers. Let's ask again, have we seen a large-scale regular Maoist army offensive since Phaphlu? An offensive where Maoists and the RNA go toe-to-toe? Not on your life.

3. And B, or whoever you are, just because someone posts 3 points, do you just automatically espouse them without even a cursory reading? What in the hell is meant by this number 3? G. gave three vivid, simple and direct invitations for peace and compromise and Girija turned him down. When a King says he'll turn over government if you'd just give him a plan for governance, wouldn't that be something that would interest a concerned SPA member? No, they rejected any kind of substantive definition or plan of action and didn't even acknowledge the overture.

You, know, blogdai is wrong quite a few times, but that misses the point entirely. We are right in our predictions and equal amount of times and the point is to get people to discuss the issues. Making predictions gives readers a defined set of points and events to watch out for. It helps everyone see the patterns blogdai sees. In the end, we should make our own judgement anyway. If I keep score, it's purely for sport.

If you're looking for the next wave of cheap opinion and momentum to help you jump on the next mob bandwagon, then, by all means, beat the drum with mr. anonymous--its your choice. The B I know is a bit of a deeper thinker than that, I would hope.

-=blogdai

 
At 11:18 AM, October 11, 2006, Anonymous Bhudai Pundit said...

These peace talks seems to be a waste of time. I just read that the Maoist took 6 cargo vans captive and have demanded money. These things need to come to a complete stop and the Maoists need to lay down their weapons!
However, everything is complicated by the fact that the SPA does not seem to provide a united front. I am just getting really sick and tired of this BS!

 
At 1:55 PM, October 11, 2006, Blogger blogdai said...

We should have been sick of this when the Maoists walked out of talks in 2003. We should have been sick of this when Girija and Deuba bickered over who would carry the NC flag at their bogus convention. We should have been sick of this after the first year without elections being held. We should have been sick of this when the maoists blew up a bus full of civilians. We should have been sick of this when Koirala kept running to India for advice. We should have been sick of this when the Maoists murdered a journalist, cut-off the hands of a pregnant woman, abducted children....

Get it? All the indications of this behaviour have been well established. What makes anyone think that the ridiculous and obviously self-motivated demonstrations of last April would lead to anything but a reapeat of such idiocy?

-=blogdai

 
At 2:32 PM, October 11, 2006, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey Bhusia Punditey,

You also one of the supporter of terrorists! You gonna get death too. Your SPAM, you and all your colleagues in UWB and elsewhere. Not to forget that Sharmendra Bhagat ahahahahahaha. I know you SPAMmers are peeing in your pants now.

 
At 3:19 PM, October 11, 2006, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I was sick of all those that Blogdai mentioned. To add to the Blogdai's list,

We were also sick of it when Gyane's army sabotaged the 2003 peace process by murdering 18 Maoists in custody in Doromba.

We were sick of it when 49 people were murdered and many more tortured in the Bhairabnath Barrack in Mahargunj.

We were sick of it seeing all the bloody pictures of Gyane's brutal suppresion of April movement.

We were sick of it when Gyane increased his royal budget seven fold when most people were barely surviving because of the 10 year civil war.

We were sick of it when Gyane's sister took 1 crore from our tax money pay for medical expense in UK (like she did anything for the country and like she had no money).

THe list goes on....

Just wanted to add because Blogdai has selective memory.

 
At 5:06 PM, October 11, 2006, Anonymous Bhudai Pundit said...

Anonymous:
I am not a SPAMer. But don't threaten me you dumb nutcase! Before you cum in your pants in excitement learn to spell my name properly.

I agree these peace negotations are leading to nowhere. How can Baburam and Prachanda smile at the cameras while their cadres have taken 6 cargo vans hostage! It is just unacceptable!

Blogdai I am no big fan of the SPA and they messed up. But I have to disagree on your claim that G made a genuine attempt to reach a peaceful settlement with the Maoists. G always believed that there was a full fledge military solution - he thought he would be able to take care of the Maoists using the RNA when he came to power. As far as I remember he did not really reach out to the Moaists when they had declared the 3 month ceasefire. In fact, if memory serves, the RNA attacked the Maoists on the eve of the ceasefire deadline!

Also on Koirala running to India for advice: its sad but all our leaders run to India for advice. In fact the first foregin country a new prime minister visits is always India - as if to get their blessings. I have heard the Girija speaks in Hindi in private.

But I think we are all sick of all the leaders in Nepal.

 
At 8:09 PM, October 11, 2006, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What did HM G do? Kill some terrorists in the list provided above. I laugh off at that list. The Mob and goon movement should have been crushed by a force never known in Nepal. But such a shame that some people couldn't act with the iron fist and finish off the game there and then.

Believe you me, if any of my mates were in place of HM G, we would have wiped off all the bloody terrorists and killed much much more in many more incidents. And just made the excuse of what Americans are doing in Iraq and our case would have sounded more reasonable. And you wouldn't be here along with the Bhusiya Punditeys and the Manans to SPAM the web.

And bastard...the money HM G's family used is his national property...!!!!!! And yes, Read it 10000000 times HIS OWN PROPERTY along with the bed you were born on and the piece of land in which your body will be burnt.

the money your assholic Girja and his entire gang of SPAMmers are spending...on world tours, medical expenses, buying support of people...
well we will hold you accountable for them...and believe you me, when day of judgement comes you will surely pee in your pants and I will cum in excitement!

You know what, I can gobble you up. Not you, your entire of gang of SPAMmers...so just keep away...and pray that the death your gang gets is not very painful.

 
At 9:04 PM, October 11, 2006, Anonymous Bhudai Pundit said...

Blogdai:
I don't understand what the point of your moderation is if you allow people like anonymous to post such comments. The point was this forum was for sensible discussion with arguments. It isn't a place to vent wanton frustration and anger and write whatever without any regard.

 
At 10:12 PM, October 11, 2006, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Budhai,

Don't waste time correcting Blogdai. You should have known by now that Blogdai has selective memory and sometimes even distorted memory.

I do not know where he gets all his info from. He is either hallucinating or he suffers from tunnel vision.

 
At 11:52 PM, October 11, 2006, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I heard that Maoist have suspended talks to be held today- can we verify this and if its true then I and Blogdai stand vindicated. See, my threory as stated in previous comments is this: Maoist are fully aware that they are in no position to act or be a real political party unless they take full control. Simple as that. I don't think I need to go in length to explain their discrepancies and inaptitude, lack of popular support etc., do I? So the ball game of summit is nothing but "necessary evil" or better "farce."

I am at a point where talking about SPA only gives me chronic headache. Just ship of fools

Sansar

 
At 1:50 AM, October 12, 2006, Anonymous B said...

Blogdai,

The earlier post in my name "B" was not posted by me. So, no sweat please. And whoever used B in the earlier comments please refrain from using other people's name.

I totally agree with you blogdai. The SPA are not going to solve our problems but make it worse. I have just been a little to busy to be blogging here but i do go thru the site at least once everyday.

Anyway, chill blogdai it was not me.

 

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