Prediction: Failure!

Prachanda gets off on the wrong foot at peacetalks by claiming to be able to "see right through" Girija's ears.


Maoist atrocities increasing, governmental ineptitude and stagnation firmly in control: What better condition could one ask for on the eve of the "talk of all talks" parley between Girija and Prachanda?

Let's see where we are as we stare into the abyss:

Girija's Government: In command of its own status quo, will not give up one ounce of governmental power to the Maoists. Girija has NEVER compromised his place at the head of the corruption table and will not start now. But, one small glimmer of hope: Girija knows he's under more scrutiny this time and is under pressure to actually accomplish something; but he just can't seem to bring himself to do anything useful. The talk of re-uniting with Deuba's NC factions are merely decoys designed to distract from the surging public cries that Girija's government is fractionated and worthless, so we can't look on this as an article of substance. SPA is becoming a marginal entity at best. They can't govern and they don't have guns. Girija needs guns and will be under pressure to find a way to get them.
Girija's failure scenario: The public will become increasingly anxious by Girija's dithering---and then, perhaps, the REAL REVOLUTION will gather some steam; or, the Maoists simply walk away from the table.

Prachanda' Maoists: Have never enjoyed so much power, recognition and world support (thanks UN!) as they do now. They may agree on paper for a disarmament, but they will NEVER give an inch in the countryside. With complete bufoons like Ian Martin telling Nepalis that the Maoists don't have to give up their guns until a political settlement is reached, Prachanda must feel fairly good about his chances. He's not only back-doored his murderous cadres into making a viable challenge for government control, he's had the backing of the world community to boot. Prachanda really has nothing to lose during this time of negotiation. blogdai thinks he'll use every excuse in the book to forward his position. Moriarty's meddling comments and SPA delays are the current finger-pointing exercises he's using as levereage to eventually get out of compromise and disarmament. Prachanda's failure scenario: Eventually, even the meat-headed fools at the UN will not be able to ignore the constant tally of atrocities committed by Prachanda's barely-controlled cadres and be forced to act on the international level.

The Weapons Issue: The only issue. In a land such as Nepal where government is worthless and inept, eventually, control will come down to those who can impose their will most convincingly. That leaves the Maoists and the King. Forget the army fighting for Girija and forget Maoist factions being a part of the army. None of this will ever happen because all involve one or both armed factions ceding at least some of their power; and armed power is increasingly becoming the only viable political currency.

The Final Failure Scenario: We all lose. Girija, once again facing his own political obscurity, will let the Maoists keep their guns. (Remember: Ian Martin said it was OK!) Girija needs to align himself with some group, any group, with the power of armed enforcement or else he's finished. Forget the army. They're still electing their own leaders and functioning autonomously while being fiercely loyal to the King. Nope, Girija has the Maoists at the table and will give away the farm to bring their guns on board and keep himself in power. How will he do it? Through some ineffective language that provides for something like "self-monitoring" of arms and an agreement "not to adversely influence" any rural politics.

blogdai says it here: The Maoists will walk away from these talks with everything they need-- and fully armed.


-=blogdai