True Colors
The seldom-photographed Dadhikot checkpost prior to the Maoist attack.
Word just in from Kathmandu via one of our blogdai "spotters."
"We have surprised attacked by maoist and left killed 13 police man yesterday evening, the ssituation is chaos now and everybody frightened. This is to disturb the election and to show goverment how strong maost are, however life is ssuspeciously ok today. Tourism may go down immidiately, i will make announcement to seat tight for everybody rightway. "
Let's make no mistake here, democratic forces who claim to represent "the people" do not kill to make their point.
Regardless of the King's motiviation in holding municipal polls, it is clear that all parties in opposition to these polls neither have a clue as to how the democratic process operates nor the desire to use anything other than mass demonstrations and murder to make themselves heard.
These attacks, the 12-point agreement, the ceasefire, are all still part of the Maoist's plan. Let's ask ourselves, have the Maoists--talk aside--done anything that has even remotely deviated from their oft-professed philosophy of "strategic defensive" followed by a "strategic balance," culminating in the "strategic offensive" we see now?
If the King is a despot and the elections are a fraud, then PROVE IT. Girija/Prachanda, you could invite international private observers, solicit opinions from exit polls, film acts of coercion and intimidation, petition and negotiate for an independent ballot recount--many things that show you actually understand democracy and its processes.
Blogdai is sick of the typical blank rhetoric and posturing of the U.N. and the international community. Valid or not, the pundits and over-paid United Nations representatives could have supported these polls. Then, a clear signal would have been sent that even a messy attempt at free-election democracy, perfect or tainted, would better than doing nothing in the face of Maoist threats. As it stands, the Maoists are exploiting the grey area created by an ambiguous world opinion.
The U.N. missed a chance to send a message that violence is unacceptable. Their trademark dithering and indecision gives tacit approval to Maoist atrocities leading up to the polls.
These current and future deaths are on their heads.
-=blogdai
posted by blogdai @ 1/15/2006 11:43:00 AM
50 comments
50 Comments:
I thought that since the King and the armed forces have broken the backs of maoists, peace was going to prevail in Nepal. Well, wait a minute that was the maoists' ceasefire.
There will be no more large-scale Maoist attacks - blogdai @ 11/26/2005 02:06:00 PM
We've already stated here that the Maoists are no longer capable of large-scale military operations, and the RNA is now striking at the teeth of Maoist-Central
blogdai @ 1/01/2006 08:39:00 AM
Blogdai thinks Prachanda's new path of moving all the Maoists toward Kathmandu has some honchos at the RNA secretly licking their chops with anticipation. blogdai @ 1/04/2006 10:58:00 AM
Blogdai, you need to admit that you were dead wrong in your analysis. How come RNA could not counter attack till now when there are three army barracks or camps within 20 minutes from Thankot checkposts? Why did RNA return from Rukum without any major battle? You need to realized that fighting a guerilla war is not as easy as writing blogs in comfort of your palace.
As RNA uses more sophisticated arms, more arms just land in maoists' hands and death rates only rise. So the best alternative for the King is to put his ego in the back seat, declare ceasefire and go for constituent assembly instead of doing all this drama. I am just sick of all these innocent and poor police, army and civilians dying when King G and generals declare war from the safety of their bunkers.
the entire international community, BBC world, and CNN are failing Nepal, I am very upset about the large indifference, okay nepali governments were deciding not to pay much attention to the commies, but it has not always been like this, in 1994 I saw boys throwing stones for what they were. In 2004 we had this mess in september in KTM and just it so happened that there was the killing in Russia which was covered. The media are the peoples voice. Not the bombs. Not the guns.
"Blogdai, you need to admit that you were dead wrong in your analysis."
A couple things in order. I never knew that Blogdai do "analysis." If what he has been doing is analysis, then I must admit that I don't know the meaning of an analysis. What I read here is: venom against the political parties. A couple of Bhajans to Gyane. Sometimes, Consultancy to improve Paras's image (like how the criminal can be "popular").
Since "security" (or one might call criminals, murderers, rapists and what not) forces had already broken the backbone of the Prachanda's terrorists, I assume that they descended at the Thankot police post in their astral bodies. Blogdai knows this very well. Or what's your next propoganda, Blogdai?
One man's analysis is another's mans propoganda. For you, it is wrong for Blogdai to express his opinion because it is 'propoganda' but i am sure you are all to willing to express yours -are you not? You ridicule yourself with such logic
Anon 8.52PM, it is very nice of you to point out the opinions that Blogdai has expressed. He may well be incorrect but i do not believe that current events have caught up with your assertions -as yet. A few bombs here and then, the spark of something new and the generousity of a few words in the media leads us to all sorts of conclusions but history fools noone. Some people are more keen to jump than walk, obviously.
Dev Prasad
Whenever someone tries to call spade a spade,here in this forum, he or she is hurled various colorful epithets.
Anonymous has tried to portray BD as "royal apologist" and King G's PR man. I think BD has tried to look at the current political imbroglio and put forth an honest analysis.
These views may not be the views that Anonymous shares. This disagreement does not give him a right to slander BD. BD has been critical of all sides including the King. He has always been critical of Paras's behavior much less glamorize it.
Anonymous probably can't stand any derogatory comments made against his netas like Girija, etc. deservedly or otherwise.
Yes and can anyone who posts here have the *courtesy* of giving themselves a handle/moniker of some sort, at the least.
It makes it easier to respond to your post...
Meanwhile...(apparently) the UN has issued an edict saying that it is strictly verbotten for staff to support any political campaign of any sort. Punishment being the sack. Am I missing something here?
naagboy
The democratic king makes another move towards restoring democracy by preventing the people their democratic right to hold a public rally.
Whither Gyanendra?
Define "the people" in this instance and you will find a group of paid party activists proclaiming their intent to violently disrupt the polls.
Define "rally" in this instance and you will see a ban designed with public security in mind.
No glossing over here; a little attention to detail in one's research brings clarity.
-=blogdai
"Define "the people" in this instance and you will find a group of paid party"
Whenever I really feel tired of listening to Gyane, Girja and and Prachande, I come to visit Blogdai. Blogdai, you are great at jokes!
Will you please define a "group?" Will you please tell us how many were paid by whom and what amount? And where, Mahendranagar or Bhadrapur or Janakpur?
I am also at loss trying to understand "public security?" What is this "public?"
Even more intrigued by your idea of the "people." Will you please define people? And how can you speak on behalf of the people?
But keep on telling your jokes!!! I love them.
Party activists are not people? Do American rallies not have paid party activists attending them?
In Nepal, Party activists drum up raw numbers for the rallies, either by direct favoritism or coercion. Student wings of the parties raise hell. Spectacle alone brings in the crowds. I go to a lot of these demonstrations, get on the stage a lot as well, (See "The big block party" 12/2) and I've yet to see any deviation in this formula.
blogdai would absolutely love to see a sincere citizen-based movement take hold in Nepal. Sadly, the indisputable point is, special interests control demonstrations because special interest can afford to mobilze so many people at once. I have yet, YET, to see one rally where a Nepal flag--rather than a party flag--was the principal banner. In fact, I don't remember EVER seeing a symbol of national unity in a protest: only party banners, uncompromising party rhetoric and not a whiff of an attempt at national unity or inclusiveness.
Blogdai gets energized from time to time when a non-partisan demonstration for "peace" occurs or a Maoist victims march takes place in kathmandu. These, to me, represent actual citizen outrage. But alas, these movements have no staying power because they have no lasting funds. In Nepal, your opinions are worthless if they can't buy enough ears to hear them.
Before we all stand up here and accuse blogdai of grandstanding, consider all of your perspectives. Let's have a tea in Bagh Bazaar, and talk to some real people, shall we? Let's set a date.
Blogdai is getting sick of these people who requote what I've said and think they've found the keys to the universe or some monumental gaffe. If you can't understand that redefining "the people" is meant to show that the people running these protests do not represent "the people" as a national whole or that public security is necessary in the face of anarchy, then, please, take your level of comprehension somewhere else.
I'm also getting real sick of this Neuvo-Western-educated mind set. Don't just slap together these comments from yesterday's wire service releases: show up in Kathmandu and land on the ground with me, once, with an open mind,listen and then state your opinions. The tea's on me!
-=blogdai
8:27 PM, January 16, 2006
...are'nt we missing something ...why is no one accusing the 7 parties for colluding with terrorists ? if they have a nice common agenda [ how points was it?]hammered out on power sharing and take over of the country, then j'accuse the parties of being a part of all attacks. p.s. i love the way the indian ambassador scurried away to redo his agenda after his party maoist brokered front went violent
Blogdai,
I hope you don't lose heart by the baseless slanderings by people like anonymous, who is clearly a paid representative of the politicians or some international organization, or an idiot who can't see between the lines. You have the support of the truly patriotic Nepalese and those who believe in something more than money.
The silence of the so called human rights activists on the brutal murder of policemen, who were apparently eating dinner when they got shot, is testimony of their hypocricy. These rights organizations are merely doing business here. Another thing is that slandering the RNA and the King is not going to get them killed, but talking shit against the Maosists is a death wish. The killing of Ganesh Chilwal, the chairman of the Association of the Victims of Maoists by the Maoists in 2003 is perhaps all too vivid in their memories. So who's the murderer here, the RNA or the Maoists?
Anonymous, your logic that the RNA's guns only land up in the Maosists hands is ridiculous. You are implying that stopping the arms supply to the RNA will curb arms supply to the Moaists. Do you truly believe that they don't have other sources? Are you unaware that the Maoists used AK-47s when neither the RNA nor the police possesed them?
Furthermore, do you think that the Maoists are up for peace talks and willing to compromise on the basic philosphies that the contemporary world believes in? Thier so called 12-point agreement with the 7-party alliance is just a ploy to infiltrate Kathmandu and the urban centers under the protection of the parties. They have played the parties like a fiddle, and it is sad to see that the UML and the NC are again at it with each other: the UML accusing the NC of misusing funds sent by Yechuri and other Indian allies and the NC accusing the UML of using the pact to further the UML cause selfishly. Hello! This is the kind of self centered rivalry that gave rise to the insurgency in the first place. Now they are helping the Maoists infiltrate the valley. AND THIS IS WHAT THE PEOPLE OF NEPAL ARE SICK OF!! WE ARE NOT SUPPORTING THE KING FOR AN AUTOCRATIC RULE, WE ARE SUPPORTING THE KING TO GET RID OF SELFISH CORRUPT POLITICIANS AND LAY THE FOUNDATIONS FOR A REAL DEMOCRACY IN NEPAL!!
The King is not the one with the ego here. In light of the recent attacks in Kathmandu, and possibilities that friday's mass rally could be heavily infiltrated by Maosists(who are now another party activist, perhaps even possesing ID cards issued by the parties), and who could take advantage and launch violent attacks, the Home Ministry has requested the party's to "find a solution to the political problem through 'dialogue'and 'understanding' and urged them to cancel the demonstration planned for Friday in the capital . The party leadership has flatly rejected the offer claiming that the "government does not have any standing and authority to make such an offer."(Himalayan Times, Tuesday, January 16)
http://www.thehimalayantimes.com/fullstory.asp?filename=aFanata0sgqzpfa8Ta8ua.axamal&folder=aHaoamW&Name=Home&dtSiteDate=20060117
So who has the authority here Mr. Madhab Nepal? You or Prachanda? If the present government does not have legality, why is the diplomatic community still in Nepal? Why is the world bank and other donors giving this "illegitimate" government funds? Why was His Majesty welcomed, so grandly, in Dhaka during the SAARC summit? If there is anyone here who is illegitimate it is the people, who, on the basis of their election to government 7 years ago for a 5-year term, are still claiming to be the representatives of the Nepalese people. Why don't you come to the scheduled elections to reassert the Nepalese peole that you still represent us? Is it because you don't have the monopoly now at the polling stations to skew the votes in your favor that you so vehemently oppose elections?
Anonymous, who has the ego now? The King or the Party leadership. Please take note that I refer to the "Party leadership" and not the party itself and understand that it is these lying bastards that the people of Nepal are against and not democracy.
Madhab Nepal believes that he can overthrow monarchy with the help of the Maoists. What he plans after that is no mystery, considering the way he used the NC cadres in his UML rally then did not support the NC rally later on. But I tell you this Mr. Nepal, Prachanda and the CPN(M) are not as naive as the senile old Girija babu. If you believe that you can sideline the CPN(M) after overthrowing the King, you are the greatest fool that this world has ever seen. Needless to talk about those who are following him.
For the rest of us who are capable of saner analysis I would suggest you to read Robert Kaplan's brilliant article in the World Street Journal.
http://www.worldsecuritynetwork.com/showArticle3.cfm?article_id=12328&topicID=54
Jai Nepal!
Shiva Nepali
Very good pamplet, Shiva. You are doing your job faithfully! Unfortunatley, KG did not get many slaves as faithful as you are. It looks like you have also mastered psychic powers: you seem to know what goes on in the heads of Prachanda the terrorist or many others? Or have you acquired devine power like Gyane the killer or Deuba the stupid?
Well, Maoists terrorists have killed many innocent including the president of the Maoist victims. But what do you say about Maina Sunwar? And do you have anything to say about the just discovered Sarala Sapkota’ skelton? You must know how many were raped and brutally killed by "security" forces. Anything to say?
I doubt that the Rotten Narayanhiti Assasins will ever be able to fight the terrorists.
Don't worry what happens after Gyane. At some point the world was ruled by God-Kings as sacred as Gyane. The world is still there intact after all gods are gone. Let KG and Paras go out of the scene. Things will come to a natural state.
Shiva, as you want to know what the human rights groups are doing this is for you: NHRC Embarks on Investigation into Thankot, Dadhikot Raids
Anonymous 10:31 PM, January 16, 2006. I'll call you Waldorf from now on.
There is no such thing as a perfect army. Wars are stressful and people do things that they normally wouldn't and unfortunately there will always be rogue elements.
Look at the recent history of all the other armies in the world. Far from unblemished. Abuse in Iraq by the coalition. Nonaction is just as bad e.g. the Dutch in Bosnia 1995.
A lot of these cases will also have been covered up because of the effect it will have on the morale of an army. No point really fighting a war if morale is low is there?
I really don't think the RNA hierarchy whole-heartedly condone such abuses. Let's be realistic.
naagboy
Shiva Nepali,
Enough of your rhetorics. Let us just get back to straight facts. To make it easier for you, I have done some research.
1) Which side has murdered more people?
Death toll related to the Maoist movement between 13 February '96 - 30 November '05
Number of people killed by the State: 8,283
Number of people killed by the CPN (Maoist): 4,582.
Total number of people killed: 12,865
(Death toll source: INSEC)
2) Has the death toll increase or decreased after RNA entered the conflict and used more sophisticated weapons
Death toll between 1996 and when RNA entered the conflict in Nov, 2001 (5 years) : approx 3,000
Death toll after RNA entered the conflict in Nov, 2001 to present (4 years): approx approx 10,000
2) Instances of infiltration by RNA or maoists in the political party demonstrations.
RNA: 1 (POKHARA, Jan 8 -
Nine Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) soldiers pretending to be Maoists, Saturday infiltrated a peaceful CPN-UML gathering at Kalimati in Baglung and attempted to foil the programme. Source: Kantipur)
Maoists: 0
Statistics of Government changes in Nepal
Between Rana Rule and Panchayat
1952 - 1960 (8 years): 10
Panchayat Era
1960 - 1990 (30 years): 22
Parliamentary rule
1990 - 2002 (12 years): 10
King's rule
Oct, 2002 - Present (3.5 years): 4 times
Of the 10 government changes between 1990 - 2002, changes orchestrated by RPP: 5
(Source: An article from Kantipur)
Shiva, I don't have special skill like you to know what Madhav Nepal or maoists are thinking but I certainly can interpret these statistics. After all, numbers do not lie.
Waldorf,
can you break down the figures to non-combatants/civilians and members of the PLA please?
naagboy
I"n Nepal, Party activists drum up raw numbers for the rallies, either by direct favoritism or coercion. Student wings of the parties raise hell. Spectacle alone brings in the crowds."
You're right. Some people among thousands in the rallys definitely come for spectacle. However, when parties are bringing tens of thousands of people consistently on a weekly basis all over the country, I do not buy your argument. 100,000 in Janakpur, 30,000 in Kathmandu. These figures show that a significant number of people still see democratic system as a lesser evil than the monarchy.
Political parties are bringing the crowd in spite of all the propaganda and obstruction of the state, which tells me that people are getting disenchanted with KG's promises. Time favors the oppoisition. The longer it takes KG to bring peace in the country, more people will start supporting the opposition.
blogdai said...
I sometimes think I'm speaking into a brick wall. Did you not read, comprehend, or otherwise note that the Parties have big crowds because the can AFFORD to have big crowds?
Also, i love those numbers supplied by one of our anonymouses. Did any of us notice the way question #2 was phrased? It is looking for a death toll "after the RNA entered the conflict." This strikes blogdai as hillarious. INSEC--if they wrote this--are implying that the Maoists were killing, torturing, committing atrocities; i.e. were "in conflict" prior to any RNA role. And now, one of our dear readers is trying to spin this as though the RNA are the principal bad guys? Well, what is a national security force supposed to do? Just leave you Maoists alone so that you can keep on killing?
The Maoists would be in Kathmandu now, girija and deuba would be either dead or bickering, and the whole country would be in chaos if the RNA hadn't supplied the necessary compensating pressure that they have up to this point.
The Maoists started this whole mess; whoever wrote question #2 freely admits this.There would be NO killings if it were'nt for the Maoists. If the RNA doesn't step into it in some capacity, Maoist atrocities will increase and anarchy will prevail.
Maybe we should ask a hypothetical question 2a: "How many RNA civilian killings occured prior to the Maoists entering the conflict?"
-=blogdai
Naag,
Unfortunately, INSEC website does not breakdown the data by maoists and civilians. However, it does break down by various professions. One of the professions is political parties, which we can assume as mostly maoists and the rest from other political parties.
Go to http://inseconline.org/hrvdata.php for more info.
Here goes Blogdai spinning again. I did not get #2 from INSEC but gathered from an article I came across on the web.
"The Maoists started this whole mess; whoever wrote question #2 freely admits this. If the RNA doesn't step into it in some capacity, Maoist atrocities will increase and anarchy will prevail. There would be NO killings if it were'nt for the Maoists."
I agree with your first point and it is a no brainer. However, # 2 shows that RNA failed miserably in curbing the violence. The violence only spiralled after RNA's involvment. RNA started using more sophisticated arms, which maoists looted, and both sides killed more people. RNA also did not lag far behind maoists in human rights abuses and so the death toll sky rocketed.
So the point is continuing the war will not resolve the conflict. RNA is not capable of defeating a gureilla force. To bring peace, King G should start the negotiation with political parties and maoists as soon as possible.
Waldorf - you are seriously naive if you believe that maoists will ever negotiate peace and stick to it. They have only one aim - to overcome all opposition and rule supreme. They may waffle about other issues but they will never accept any other form of rule but their own. History and politics have demonstrated this form of rule to be totalitarian (=autocratic in a different shirt)and brutal to all dissenters (ie =total absence of democracy)
Oh brit, it's like flogging a dead horse. People see some sort of ideological perfection in opinions which are built on the false premise that all groups just want to live happily and in peace. It makes large chunks of rational thinking and critical analysis fall by the wayside. "Surely," these people say, "If we just sat down and talked to the Maoists..."
As you rightly point out, Maoists want nothing but the absolute advancement of their unilateralist, unbending philosophy.
The parties have no idea how to practice democracy and are usurpting the term to further their personal agendae.
Both of these groups mock us. They know we would rather compromise than fight; believe that all people want and are capable of fairness and humanity; and have an unflinching belief in the power of the negotiated settlement. The maoists and the parties perceive this as a weakness and exploit it every chance they get.
When will we ever learn.
-=blogdai
I feel like mopping up a few items:
Don't know what anonymous was trying to prove with that little statistical rant, but blogdai has read the INSEC report and it just doesn't quite spin out the way anonymous puts it. Those increased killing numbers since RNA "entered the conflict" fairly well explain the difference between unilateral maoist butchering of citizens and a national army "openin'-up-a-can-o-whoop-ass" to defend its citizens.
I guess a ceasefire, to a Maoist, means: postpone your killing for a while and work on your abductions.
Read INSECS's take on the "ceasefire:"
"The report said the Maoists abducted 8777 people, most of them teachers and students, of which, one was killed, 5775 were released and 3001 still disappeared.
INSEC said the Maoists continued targeting schools affecting more than 30,000 students in various parts of the country during the same period (ceasefire)
Maoists also did not respect their own commitment. They have been involved in
killing of civilians, crossfire, abduction, targeting of schools, beatings and
incidents of loots. Both the sides are seen responsible in human rights violations.
A total of 13 civilians have been killed by the Maoists whereas they have
abducted 8777 persons, most of them being students and teachers. Though
number of killings from the Maoists has gone down there has been rise on
incidents of abduction
Maoists targeted schools a lot. Community schools were the most to be affected.
This has directly violated child’s right to education. Study of more than 30,000
students was affected by such closure called by the Maosits. There are ample of
examples where students were displaced following the terror of Maoists. For
instance, students of class 11 and 12 of Pshanand Higher Secondary School in
Bhojpur district were forced to flee away after Maoists issued notice to take them
away for recruitment. 54 students were compelled to search a safe place. The
Maoists have been terming it as their ‘policy’. The Maoists were also found
beating civilians, students and even human rights defenders. They even looted a
sum of 6, 00,000 which was to be distributed among community schools in
Taplejung district. They looted medicine from a health post in Ramechhap
district. Similarly they looted the house of one person in Ramechhap, which they
had locked it times back and forced the house owner to be displaced. They
threatened different industries, businessmen, government employees, schools and
NGOs to pay tax, stop functioning in Jhapa, Kavre, Morang, Kaski, Dailekh and
Surkhet districts. They even destructed houses of civilian and a historical temple
in Dailekh and Dhankuta districts respectively. They are still continuing their
activity of detaining people in their 'labor camp'"
As a point of concession, maoists DO get their arms from the RNA occasionally. If the RNA was a properly trained force, there would be less lapses in discipline and fewer arms lost to the enemy.
I'd like to buy into your RNA brutality show there, anonymous, but it seems the Maoists conducted business as usual during their "ceasefire." Hey, "the numbers don't lie" right anonymous?
Shiva is right, the human rights groups are silent as lambs about the cops being killed at Thankot. Oh, sure, you can cite the on-going investigation, but where's the outrage? Oh, blogdai forgot: that's saved for the RNA, right?
Killing policemen at dinner is not evidence of a Maoist large scale attack. Typical night-time small scale stuff. when you see maoists marching by the hundreds on kathmandu then I'll retract; but in the meantime, anonymous, simply TALKING on a large scale the way the Maoists do, does not automatically upgrade a cowardly night attack to that level. And by the way, if you think that freeing thousands of maoist hostages in Rukum is coming away with nothing, then you should stay off this blog, you twit.
Paid party activists in other countries still respect the system that they are protesting. They usually keep the dialogue open with the opposition, they don't threaten to overthrow the current government, and they absolutely do NOT ally with terrorists.
Blogdai said: People see some sort of ideological perfection in opinions which are built on the false premise that all groups just want to live happily and in peace. It makes large chunks of rational thinking and critical analysis fall by the wayside. "Surely," these people say, "If we just sat down and talked to the Maoists..."
No doubt it was people like you who said we shouldn't negotiate with the IRA. We never listened to your kind then and we'll certainly not listen now.
Great there Dave, real dreamy.
Let's begin by saying that you can only negotiate when everyone's willing to negotiate. The Maoists are not. More on that later.
Maybe you could educate me a bit on the IRA but were'nt they at somewhat of a political dead-end?
Wasn't it just impasse after impasse? Gerry Adams's clout slipping and all that? Where were their big strategic and political gains? Their kind of violence was resulting in no real movement and less public popularity right?
Plus, what gains or negotiated victories are you talking about? The IRA decomissioned their arms in the wake of the London bombings, almost unilaterally as a PR move. Were there any direct negotiations that precipitated this? Did the IRA get something in return for this? Can we completely discount this move as being tactical?
Now it looks like that amnesty bill for IRA fugitives has lost all its steam in the British parliament. Terrorists don't seem to be able to get a free ride anywhere anymore it seems. So, will the IRA pick up arms again now? Was it all a big dance in the first place? Sorry there Dave, but you're far to trusting.
So, why now in the world would our dear Maoists want to come to the negotiating table when momentum--or at least their perception of such--is still on their side? Had you been reading our blog more thoroughly, you would have seen the earlier article I wrote (look for the pretty picture of Prachanda with his fist in the air) where I said that maoists only negotiate if they feel they can gain a strategic advantage or when they've run out of options (like your IRA, I'd presume).
You want to get Maoists to the table? Get them to a stalemate first.
-=blogdai
Dave - there may be similarities of tactics between the maoists and the IRA but they have almost nothing in common politically or ideologically. It is therefore pointless using the one as an example in terms of political settlement for the other.
You are absolutely right Blogdai. Until the Maoists are at a stalemate they will never compromise. And by compromise, I mean disarmament and shedding away with their ridiculous demands. Thereafter we can settle for the things that are realistic and those that will make a positive impact on the lives of the poor of this nation. I just went over the 40-point demand recently and found that a lot of them are unrealistic and ludicrous. More on that later. Read Kaplan's article waldorf and perhaps you will understand the RNA's strategy.
Dave also BD wouldn't want negotiations with Tamil Tigers, PLO, Achenese rebels, Sudanese rebels, etc. etc. etc. War is good for BD.
The need for the moment is negoitations. The King must reach out to the parties especially the Nepali Congress. GPK is clearly nervous about Madhav being the focal point of this SPA. I feel the King should exploit that. NC is a dictotorial organization, whatever GPK says will happen. King G is counting on the Feb 8th elections to be successfull. King G is confident while the whole country is clearly nervous.
AArgh! BD must stand for Blood and Death to you.
I once read a P.J. O'Rourke snippet that basically said that many of these rebel groups are made up of poor young people who find it much more fun running around at night with guns than sitting at home and starving.
So, yea, I guess that unless you give rebels an alternative to their poor existence or make their rebel lives unbearable through conflict, then I can't see why these people would ever want to negotiate.
Are you going to tell me that a persons that kills, robs and demands food at gunpoint is going to settle for the promise of equal representation in some far away parliament?
Feed 'em or kill 'em P.J. says. Everything else is just window-dressing.
Curious you point out Rebel factions in Sumatra. Didn't they just unilaterally quit their campaign? In this case, the Tsunami worked in the same manner as village vigilantism. Nothing left to pillage or threaten. People were distracted, uninterested and openly hostile to the rebel viewpoint after the tsunami. Didn't these same rebels re-invent themselves as humanitarian providers for a time also? It proves the point made earlier that once a movement's momentum is lost--either via stalemate or tsunami--the movement itself is not long for this world.
Since our king neither has the will, intellect or capacity to introduce nation-wide hunger relief or job initiatives, he must fight the Maoists to whatever level it takes to kill the momentum of their movement.
-=blogdeath
1) Thanks Blogdai for copying and pasting from the INSEC's report. However, you conveniently chose to ignore the abuses by army. The killings by state during ceasefire: 62.
2) Everyone knows that Maoists are brutal and that is why Maoists are considered terrorists. If RNA is representing a legitimate government as they claim to be then they should follow the laws they are committed to. They should be protecting the people instead of abusing them. If not then, the RNA leadership should be prepared to stand trial just like the Milosevic did in Hague. This is real.
3) On your comments on Thankot attack, it looks like you have a really low expectation from RNA. Maoists are able to pass through all the check posts, penetrate so close to Kathmandu and attack a police post while RNA could not even retaliate back especially when there are three army camps within 15 min. And you talk about defeating Maoists militarily?
4) RNA is really good at committing atrocities against unarmed and helpless people like party workers and villagers. But RNA is not as efficient fighting Maoists. A few months ago there was RNA’s abuse story about Maina Sunuwar. This week there is another abuse story about Sarala Sapkota. Moreover, there are hundreds of stories that are never reported. For an average villager, Maoists and RNA are the same.
5) Some people are benefiting from the war the likes of retired generals and RNA leadership, who profit from commissions on weapons deals and supplies to the growing army. Of course, they do not want the war to stop and these people are the most vocal supporters of the Royal Government. Blogdai, I hope you are not one of them.
"Paid party activists in other countries still respect the system that they are protesting. They usually keep the dialogue open with the opposition, they don't threaten to overthrow the current government, and they absolutely do NOT ally with terrorists."
You must be kidding. Now, is the Government giving any respect to the opposition? I would think your comment would make sense if the Government came to power through a legitimate means. However, when you have a Government that forcefully came to power with help of guns, this does not apply.
"Since our king neither has the will, intellect or capacity to introduce nation-wide hunger relief or job initiatives, he must fight the Maoists to whatever level it takes to kill the momentum of their movement."
This is rare truth, Blogdai. Probably, I had a bit misconception about you. You might remember KG in his (in)famous Time magazine interview clearly said that he had asked his "sucurity" forces to do WHATEVER was necessary. Do you think KG has not been doing to the fullest for the past three years or so?
But the problem is unless you subsrcirbe to whimsical ideas of Tulsi Giri and KG (that they had already broken the "back" of the Maoists), the Maoists are as strong as ever. Tulsi Giri and KG (you are included) miscalculated the the level the party had penetrated in Nepali society in the past tweleve years. Note that even corruption in the past twelve years was distributive (unlike panchayat corruption which largely took place in power and palace corridors). You kept on rambling that party had about 200 "paid" workers...the same face turn up every day every where etc. You grossly miscalculated things. Parties came back, surprisingly, given their activities in the past tweleve years, in a very short time.
Second, Tulsi Giri, KG and you (of course, Nepal's democrats, academicians and journalists) err in an even more fundamental level. All share the view that people are stupid or they became Maoists at gun points or they bacame Maoists because they were hungry. This is the height of absurdity. Some people become Maoists just like others become royalists or democrats or mandales or whatever. However rude it might appear to KG, you and me, for many people, Maoism is an ideal worth dying for. They are not less intelligent or brainwashed. Blogdai, take it leave it. Good-luck in your pursuit of "crushing" the Maoists.
Firstly, can you Anonymous guys give yourselves an identity, a number, a codeword, a sign perhaps and stick with it so that we know who is who.
Now, I am no King supporter, but at least he says he has a plan and he wants to implement that. All other guys had their turns so it is only fair to let him have a go as well.
By disrupting the poll we are not going to achieve anything. Army is under King's command but in due coarse we could have changed that for them to be under the parliament when the democracy is more mature and the party leaders are more nationalist (patriotic?) not to be bought and sold. Instead of fighting agaist the King and army we should have been fighting with the Maoists insurgency and then talk about whatever kind of democracy we want later when things are order - economically. At present the country about to become bankrupt, if not already done so - all the development works are stopped, nothing is in the pipeline. No amount of democracy and bring back the time lost.
RNA is not flawless, but their atrocities are less brutal (at times deadly though, alas!) than the Maoists who have been slitting people's neck in the name of suraki ko safaya.
We only have to read the history of Cambodia to see that these Nepali "Khamer Rouge" with their murdurous intent will end killing many more people and will achieve nothing.
Granted, Maoists problem can't be completely solved with guns, but without gun there will be no solution at all.
anonymous said ... damn it's strange that in this forum people accept pseudonyms.. but anonymous posts bug them...
anyways just watched the EU knee jerk reaction to G's crackdown for tomorrows demonstration...tough luck G but damnocracy is what the world craves..the new world order demands it and they dont care about what happens to the common people.. have to say one thing..we are watching the days before the fall of 'phnom phenn' yes and madhav nepal if you think you are surfing the wave of the maoists well your going to crash to a foamy grave in their hands..kathmandu is already sadly infiltrated.. is all hope lost? not yet . but the vultures are begining to circle the valley
No mobile phone lines. Mass arrests of the opposition leaders. Rumours of a curfew all day on Friday. All to combat the non-existant threat of Maoist infiltration of a rally? I think not. Gyanendra knows the game is up.
...oh the game is not up.... the game is afoot..time for G to bring out the gun..enough of placating world leaders who dont care what the maoists are doing to the country..
I find the polarised views on this website fascinating. It shows the depth of emotion that you all feel towards the political situation in Nepal.
Blogdai expresses his view and creates a storm of frenzied activity with posters claiming all sorts. Now, this has surely got to be a positive outcome to his views -regardless of whether you agree, disagree or (like me)fall somewhere inbetween.
I believe any informed intellectual discussion on the political situation in Nepal is much needed. Nepal is not lacking opinion but it is lacking rational opinion that follows a middle ground and i am of the opinion that this blog generally provides such ground.
The political situation in Nepal will never be resolved by emotive judgement, dogmatic posturing or self-righteous moralising.
It is my opinion that a pragmatic approach is sorely missing from the political situation in Nepal. There appears to be a blame culture that is reminiscent of my school boy years. The quote i provided earlier from Madhev Nepal is illustrative of this point.
I do not believe the political elite are particularly concerned for the welfare of their people. Curiously, this is reciprocated by the people who would perhaps prefer that these school children played elswhere.
I believe the political situation in Nepal is at an impasse but like a giant cyst on the arse of society -it will naturally burst and the fall out will be interesting to watch for the political observer.
Sadly, it will be the poorest in society who suffer the consequences of the political machinations of the elite. I would urge any one who has poses an interest in Nepal to genuinely consider this before they lay judgement to the political situation of the country.
There will be no political legitimacy until this is addressed.
Let us hope that Feb brings hope and not violence.
Political rant over.
Dev Prasad
Well, I really do think the elections should be delayed until after the Maobadis 10th anniversary but of course the regressive parties would probably use this as political capital as well. There's that old phrase about protesting too loudly..
And as for Prachanda promising not to infiltrate the demonstrations. Yeah right and pigs can fly. BD mentioned the RNA generals licking their chops about the convergence of Maoist forces. Well we all know that the Maoists use human shields and have a sense of the outrageous. Prachanda must be really wrestling with his conscience on this one.
naagboy
We encourage anonymous comments here at blogdai; but be forewarned, anon's are not always going to be afforded the same courtesy in a blogdai rebuttal as we give to opposing views from say, Dave. Secondly, if you don't completely understand what's being said or alluded to, don't keep repeating yourself and requoting me. Save that mind-numbing crap for places like Samudaya.org. From now on, if you waste half of your posting requoting something I've said, I'll delete it. Learn to write and make your point. Our readers know what you are referring to. So let me tersely swab-up a few points here and we can keep going.
No anon, you idiot, I did not forget to mention RNA killings. It was a unilateral ceasefire and the RNA was killing Maoists in the spirit of that unilateralism. Did you even bother to read the first paragraph of my 1/17 posting? Naag is right. Why do you continue to lump maoist combatants in with civilians? Most of the 62 killed during the ceasefire were Maoists. Who are you trying to fool?
Anon again, the gov't has offered to negotiate with parties and Maoists repeatedly; the parties have stubbornly refused to to talk to the king repeatedly. For the sake of our collective sanity, will you look this shit up and stop wasting our time?
Next anony-mouse: The King can only "do whatever is necessary" if he is given the tools to do so--thanks for nothing, India. So, let's see, the king did not save the world over the past year and he is a failure. Let's see again, your beloved parties almost destroyed Nepal over the last 10 years and they should be restored to power immediately? Listen, Nepal was spiralling towards a Maoist fueled state of anarchy before the King stepped in. There was no time left for the parties to dither around in their incompetence. No matter how many ways you and Girija want to bend article 127, the King's move was constitutional.
To anon the conclusion-drawing simpletion: How in the world can a well-coordinated series of preventative security measures be interpereted to mean "the game is up" for G? It should tell us otherwise. It is a level of organization completely off the radar to party members; they can't even tie their own shoes without taking to the streets in protest.
(Whew! That felt good.)
QUICK PREDICTION:
The Maoists STILL do not have the capacity to take over Kathmandu. There will be increased bombing and that will be it. It will still be on a guerilla scale. Kathmandu will NOT fall; a Maoist blockade will NOT be effective and the polls will NOT be thwarted.
Some new quotes from the BBC, of all sources, actually reflect an accurate and unbiased take on the current happenings from the average Nepali in the street. I'll print them for you below:
"Yes I fully support the arrest of the opposition leaders because I am tired of these demonstrations which are organised 300/365 days. Only the people suffering from these demonstrations understand how seriously has it affected our daily life. I am not a fan of monarchy but these democratic leaders do no good to poor people. Time has come for someone new, someone educated, some one who would really understand the need of a common people and work for the people."
Danish Shrestha, Kathmandu
"The arrest is a clear signifier of a very reactionary nature of the autocratic government. What happened to freedom of expression and the right to organize? This draconian curfew which is being increased by an hour each day is absolutely unacceptable and perhaps there will be a day-long curfew tomorrow. I will take part in the rally tomorrow even if there is a curfew. students are already planning a major demonstration. I am confident that the Maoists will keep their word, and will not disrupt tomorrow's rally."
Retika , Kathmandu, Nepal
"As long as we can go about doing our daily jobs, I do not think most people in Kathmandu are concerned about who has been arrested. I personally do not know of anyone who will be taking part in the rallies on Friday - probably, they will mostly be hired people from outside the capital. Yes, I am concerned about possible disruptions by Maoist rebels. It is a very good opportunity for them to create trouble - perhaps burn and smash everything in sight - as it usually happens in such demonstrations."
Pramesh P, Kathmandu
-=blogdiatribe
The game is up because these are not preventative measure from a democratic leader but authoritarian measures from an autocratic goon.
Your predictions are wrong, you will be proven wrong within the next 6 months. Please do not try to hide your poor 'analysis' (that is what you call the rubbish you write, don't you?) later.
Can I call you anonymaoist?
-=blogdai
Anonymous 12:48 PM, January 19, 2006. I'll call you Statler from now on. Or is this Waldorf? I guess it's better to be a coward then to die by the "heroic" comments you stand by.
This is an example of a "drive by" posting to quote Blogdai. And if you are wrong? No way to rebuke you and make it stick when you've been proved wrong is there? You hide in your anonymity. Take some responsibility for your postings! I'm fed up of repressed, reactionary Nepalis. I have to deal with enough of them at bars and clubs...
naagboy
Sadly this debate appears to have fallen into school boy name calling.
Nah, that's good old fashioned intellectual frustration.
Naagboy is feeling a parallel sensation to what it must be like trying to negotiate with Maoists.
Stubborn, single issue morons.
Or is that name-calling?
-=blogdai
A comment about the curfew on Reuters.
"This curfew is wrong," said 35-year-old trader Umanath Gilal. "We can't do our business and earn a living. I won't be participating in the protests but I support the protesters."
Wow, I was away for 1 day, and this site is flooded.
Blogdai, On your comment on Government's call for negotiation, I searched for 'Tulsi Giri' and 'Negotiation' on Google News.
I did not see anything on Government seeking negotiation. Instead, see what I found...
No ceasefire, no reconciliation with seven parties: Dr Giri
Kathmandu Post, Nepal - Dec 20, 2005
Nepali govt not to hold talks with guerrillas
Xinhua, China - Dec 20, 2005
Also, your effort to white wash the misrule of Shah dynasty for 230 years by blaming all the fiasco on 10 years of democratic era is ridiculous. People were suppressed for ages, the democratic years gave them a little freedom but failed to meet their expectation, and the whole thing exploded when Maoist triggered it like a pressure cooker. However, the real reason for all this mess is the suppression, feudal structure and apathy of the powerful towards the weak, which have been practiced since our country was born.
All the anonymous posting are annoying indeed. So I am going to call myself GM.
GM
Thanks for the courtesy, GM,
Just this past November, the King, In the Himalayan times agreed to talk with the Maoists provided they lay down their arms. Why else would G. appoing two maoist negotiators to his new cabinet: Pun and Thapa?
King also agreed to open up talks with the parties and I believe it was Ramesh Nath Pandey who said that the doors are open.
Also, as far back as last October, you surely remember the King's famous "we are bickering like a husband and wife" comment, don't you? He said he would open the door for negotiations provided the parties promised to "practice good governance." Not so much to ask, is it?
On the other hand, just this January 8, madhav Nepal "ruled out the possibility of dialogue with the king, saying the parties would negotiate with the Maoists instead."
g.P koirala this last November ruled out the possibility of any talks with the king: vowing "it was just a matter of time" before G. fell.
Really, this stuff is easy to find, GM; dig a little deeper.
-=blogdai
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