Sunday, June 19, 2005

Get Ready!

We here at Blogdai have been calling this one ever since the King's takeover ("Blogdai and the Rumor Mill, Feb. 3, and My Favorite Rumor, Feb. 8) and now it looks like the most obvious of political alliances is about to stumble into being: Girija loves Mao. Ain't that sweet?

It makes perfect sense for the marginalized, irrelevant former politicians of Nepal to look for political traction anywhere they can get it. These are political animals who care only for power and leverage. They would make a deal with the devil if it restored their place at the trough of corruption.

So, old Girija finally fessed-up to meeting with the Maoists during his "medical" visit to Delhi. In perhaps the most ironic quote of the century Girija proclaimed:

"If they term the Maoist problem as a political problem and want it resolved amicably, then why should anyone object if we, leaders of political parties, take initiatives to bring the rebels to the dialogue table?" Koirala asked. "It is our duty - the government, international community and the parties - to bring the Maoists to the negotiating table."

This talk of duty coming from the man who single-handedly sabatoges the last nearly-successful peacetalks with the maoists by calling for a student protest. Should we be surprised? News accounts flourish where Girija openly contradicts his prior statements or actions; often within days of their occurrence. Girija never once showed any aptitude or desire to bring the Maoists to the table while he was in government. This latest action is his last greedy attempt at a power grab.

Yes, babu, let's reinstate you and all your cronies to government immediately. You cannot even agree on the procedures for holding a simple NC convention, but that doesn't mean we should doubt your ability to run a democracy, right? Hard to tell. It seems now that Democracy is not your cup of tea. The recently called municipal elections are a good baby-step towards figuring out what went wrong in the past; kind of a democracy do-over to wipe the slate clean and get it right, but, alas, you are now calling for a boycott of this restorative step. Wouldn't want any new fairly-elected officials sticking their clean hands in your cookie jar would you?

Blogdai feels we are getting closer to an actual Congress-Maoist merger date. Since China is starting to dump some heavy military metal in Kathmandu, our NC/Maoist heroes must be feeling the pressure. Prediction: Look for something approaching a formal agreement between the Parties and the Maoists within the month. The parties have even begun to set up sort of a Maoist dialogue office in Delhi. Yes, our boys are serious now. Everyone knows that decisions affecting Nepal can only be made in India, right?

Even the Yanks are worried. After being roundly criticized for playing golf with Paras, U.S. ambassador Moriarty's office expressed concern about this new potential alliance saying that such an alliance could "plunge Nepal into further chaos." So, if this gets the dull-witted Moriarty's attention then the Maoist/NC alliance must be far along indeed, as the U.S. embassy is usually about a month behind the intelligence curve on such matters.

So, here it comes. At least now we can group all the bad-guys together for less confusion.


Note: blogdai is getting tired of using terms like, NC, congress, the Parties, corrupt former government officials, etc. From now on, for accuracy and brevity, we will refer to anything concerning the former government as: "Girija" -=blogdai

Update: June 20, Step one:

Prachanda directs cadres not to take action against civilians

KOL Report
KATHMANDU, June 20 - Maoist supremo Prachanda Sunday directed all his party cadres not to carry out any physical action against any unarmed civilians, even if they were “criminal” a statement said.
Prachanda’s statement comes one day after the seven parties called on the Maoists to abjure violence and support their agenda for restoration of democratic process in the country.
He also said he supported the decision taken by the seven parties to boycott the local polls and not to recognize the appointments made at local levels. (hb)

Update: June 21, Another Step: blogdai almost got the formal alliance he predicted one month early. All parties talking nicey-nicey now and talking about the inevitability of the alliance.

July 21, Update: One More Hurdle Cleared: Well, now that they pesky issue of maoists laying down their arms before talks can begin is over, we can now call the parties an official armed resistance.


At 9:44 AM, June 21, 2005, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have been keeping quite close tabs on all of your postings, Mr. "blogdai." You display an uncanny, almost unnatural ability to spot what's coming in Nepal.

I find it almost impossible for anyone to be that good. Who are you and how do you know all of this?

Sylvia Tierney from New York

At 12:45 PM, June 21, 2005, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yes, I've often wondered in what capacity Blogdai is in Nepal. But I respect his anonymity and reckon he wouldn't be half as effective if his cover was off.

Blogdai, I'll be getting in touch soon...stacked at the moment.


At 2:17 PM, June 21, 2005, Anonymous Brit said...

The information is freely available to anyone. All it needs is 1) the time and ability to scrutinise the various (many & very!) writings, and 2) to care enough about Nepal to take the time and considerable effort.

Oh, and it requires also a detachment from the main protagonists.

At 3:52 PM, June 21, 2005, Blogger blogdai said...

Brit is right, but you do have to know what's what in the news.

That explains the track record a bit. We do get some predictions wrong but are currently running at about 70% accuracy. You can get those results under Brit's formula, and it's not "uncanny."

I might surprise you all in the next six months or so with some fun undercover work and nifty first-hand photos. I will make an attempt to interview an actual ICG person in Kathmandu and try to find their mysterious "Nepal field office." Plus, you will see me in Delhi trying to locate that new NC strategic "nerve center" for negotiating with the Maoists. Look for some proprietary Paras photos as well, time permitting.

All in all, a fun fall for all!


At 4:14 PM, June 21, 2005, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I too have been following Blogdai for a while. As a Nepal observer, I visit many of the Nepal blogs for fresh perspectives.

I do disagree with blogdai from time to time, I find him a bit of a royalist; but what separates blogdai from the rest of the blogs is the insight provided. All blogs have their opinions, rightly, but blogdai uses his insight to draw relevent, often striking parallels and patterns in Nepal news. That, is the uncanny proof to me. It demonstrates a knowledge level that is above that of a news-skimmer.

By all prudent means, Naagboy, let's keep blogdai and his cover in tact if the result is that he continues to turn out this level of work.

Roger, U.K.

At 9:00 AM, June 22, 2005, Anonymous Brit said...

- I missed an important item from my 'formula' - It is important to have close contact with Nepali residents i.e. those currently in Nepal and Nepali (and not linked to the Parties/media etc).

It is the absence of this that is so obvious in Western reactions to the situation - rendering them worse than useless.

At 9:22 AM, June 22, 2005, Blogger blogdai said...

So, we now have the complete and completely accurate new "Brit's Formula" for proper media coverage of events in Nepal.

It should be made mandatory reading for everyone.

1. Time and skill in scrutinizing Nepal news.

2. Genuine empathy for Nepalis and their plight.

3. Complete objectivity and detachment from any political agenda.

4. Actual travel to Nepal and actual contact with Nepali's in the street.

If I could follow all of these wonderful points with any regularity, I might be tempted to call myself a journalist.



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