Saturday, May 19, 2012

India Shows its Hand

Every now and then, we get a little glimpse.....

We all fervently believe that India loves a somewhat unstable Nepal as it reinforces Nepal's dependence on India, but we rarely get a chance to confirm such conspiracy musings.  The last time we felt any sense of validation along these lines was when Indian officials were caught on tape admitting to supplying arms to the Maoists.  "Aha!, see?" we all collectively clucked.

But just yesterday, we hit the jackpot:  Indian Consular, SD Mehta, apparently was feeling a bit imperious and boldly called for a "Madhesi storm" of protests against Nepal's Federalism ideas.  He went on to say that India would give full support to such protests.  Immediately, Nepal's anti-India conspiracy theorists swooned and achieved Nirvana.

The rest of Nepal was furious.

Despite appearances, things are NOT looking up for SD Mehta

India immediately issued a statement denying Mehta's statements. What else could they do?  It was an unbelievably stupid blunder of the type from which there is no easy extrication. India knows it. A denial is the only way out at this point. Any acknowledgement of truth here would be a tacit acknowledgement of India's strategy towards Nepal. How else could a person like Mehta be allowed to carry such beliefs with him into a Consular position? Such strongly held Madhes passions would be tough to conceal over the course of a diplomatic career, wouldn't one think?

So, let's see if blogdai has all this straight:
Indian Consular invites representatives from all Nepal's political parties to a dinner function.
Indian Consular calls for Madhes protest and pledges India's backing.
Indian Consular does this openly, as a diplomat on Nepali soil.

So, basically, a representative of a foreign country has just used his diplomatic position of trust to call for open rebellion against another sovereign nation's government.  No problem there....

The Epic Flip-Flop
Prachanda calls foul, hauls the Indian ambassador to his residence and tells him how awful he is for allowing an Indian diplomat to call for ethnic protests against Federalism:  exactly three days after Prachanda himself called for ethnic protests against Federalism in the far West.  Those Indians, always trying to steal our good ideas.

The Upside
You could not have asked for better timing.  Anytime India says anything about Nepal, good or bad, we circle the national-unity wagons, come together as one people, and immediately start destroying parked cars and infrastructure.  This is the big break our inert politicians were looking for.  We can now credibly fabricate the idea that the entire Madhesi autonomy movement was an Indian scheme to de-legitimize Nepal as a sovereign nation (!)  Ok, maybe only The Telegraph would do that, but you get the point.  We now have a rallying point that should galvanize support for the current Federalism package.  No self-aggrandizing Nepali politician would dare vote against saving Nepal from Indian treachery!

How convenient.



At 7:55 AM, May 20, 2012, Anonymous Anonymous said...

LMFAO. Why do you wait so long between posts?

At 2:17 AM, May 24, 2012, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ethnically based federalism, what are your thoughts blogai? Do you think it will happen ?

At 8:03 AM, May 24, 2012, Blogger blogdai said...

I think ethnic politics will happen. Dahal has to be happy knowing the seeds he's planted during the rural Maoist campaigns of the past are bearing fruit. He played heavily to tribal and caste identities in order to gain support, remember?

It must be gratifying for him to realize that he can summon up, on short notice, the ethnic outrage necessary to insure enough chaos in Nepal to keep himself relevant.

Ethnic Federalism? Overall, no. Except in those areas that are more Indian influenced like some Madhesi regions.

Look how quiet it has been in the streets today. No bandhs planned for tomorrow either. Ask yourself: if true ethnic Federalism was such a passion for these groups, why would every bandh in Kathmandu suddenly cease after the announcement of something as trivial as a CA 3 month extension?

My guess is Dahal had a bigger hand in the bandhs than we realize and he will trigger unrest again as soon as Nepal is on the verge of actually getting a new constitution.

The math is real easy, new constitution = irrelevant Dahal


At 2:00 PM, July 25, 2012, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't completely understand your stance blogdai,But remember one thing if you are not in India's Side your are a chinese ally and vice versa.But nepal needs to have someone's alliance out of India or China to survive.Because my guess is India wants its dependent government but china wants No Nepal(merged into itself like tibet).Recent RAW report(all over news)stated that there will be India(Supported by US) and China(Supported by pakistan) Skirmish soon and Nepal might get crushed in between.


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